2010 NBA Playoffs: Ranking the Possibility of Upsets in Round 1
With the 2010 NBA Playoffs set to start on Saturday, I've ranked all eight lower seeds in all playoff matchups in their likelihood to pull off a first-round upset. Without further adue, here's the list:
1. Miami Heat
There is one more nail left for the coffin, and Dwayne Wade is about to hammer it in. The Celtics are in some serious trouble. The eternal optimist might say that Boston has been simply waiting for the playoffs and will "flip the switch" when the games start to matter more. I myself said that at one time. But this team just isn't good enough anymore. Too old, bad chemistry, Rasheed Wallace. All good reasons to expect an early demise. Probably the biggest reason, though, is still the fact that Dwayne Wade is one of the three or four best basketball players in the universe.
2. San Antonio Spurs
It may seem hypocritical to accuse the Celtics of being too old and of dogging it until the playoffs, only to rank San Antonio high on this list. It's understandable. But the difference is that San Antonio has won four titles with Tim Duncan, one of the greatest basketball players of all time, as the centerpiece and Gregg Popovich as their coach, and the team has learned how to maintain in the regular season and turn it on for the playoffs. Just look at what San Antonio has done in the last month, ripping through playoff contenders left and right. They're primed up and ready to go. To Dallas' credit, the Mavs have been tremendous this year, especially since the Butler and Haywood trades. They have a lot of firepower, but the Spurs are tougher and smarter.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder
Some might say this is too high of a ranking, but OKC is as hot as it gets, Kevin Durant is beginning to realize his powers, and Kobe and the Lakers aren't playing as well as the were at the beginning of the year. This does have all the makings of a classic "up-and-comers" versus "experienced veterans" matchup, and more often than not, the veterans wind up on top. But Kevin Durant is a special player, and he has some great sidekicks in Russell Westbrook and Jeff Green. Don't sleep on the Thunder, especially if Westbrook can pick his game up a notch from where it has been lately and dominate the horrific Farmar/Fisher combo.
4. Utah Jazz
Utah has some injury concerns with AK47 and Boozer. But it sounds like at least Boozer, and likely both, will be back for the start of this series. That will be big, as the Jazz are much better than their record indicates. The injuries did it to them. Denver, meanwhile, hasn't done much of late to inspire confidence. Kenyon Martin had been out for an incredibly long stretch before coming back three games ago and his knee still isn't the same. Carmelo will need to have a very big series to hold off the Jazz.
5. Charlotte Bobcats
It's starting to get tough to come up with reasons that any of the following teams can win. Charlotte is a fun team, and they have definitely overachieved this year. But they won't be able to stop the Magic. They've been phenomenal since the All-Star break and they can hurt you in every aspect of the game. I expect them to prove that last year's trip to the conference finals wasn't a fluke. However, Charlotte won't just lay down. They should have some fight in them and it wouldn't be a complete surprise if they took this series to game six.
6. Portland Trail Blazers
I would have had Portland much higher, but when Brandon Roy went down he took the Blazer's chances with him. Phoenix has been hot lately, and their loss to a Roy-less Portland squad was an abberation. Steve Nash knows his window is closing and he'll have the eye of the tiger in this series. It's too bad, because this could have been a much more interesting series if everyone were healthy. Portland does deserve kudos for getting as far as they have this year, but their time is up.
7. Milwaukee Bucks
Another situation where losing an important player to injury effectively kills the team's chances of advancing. The Bucks could have slowed down the pace against Atlanta and tried to win some lower scoring games if they still had Bogut in the middle. But without him, the team will need to rely on Salmons and Jennings too much. Atlanta is going to be a tough out this year in the playoffs, and they could really build some momentum for the second round if they run Milwaukee out of the building like I expect.
8. Chicago Bulls
Hey Rose, Noah, and the rest of you. Look over at the other team's bench. See that guy? His name is LeBron James. He thinks it's cute that you guys think you can beat him. Look Chicago, sometimes you're the dog and sometimes you're the hydrant. See you next year.
1. Miami Heat
There is one more nail left for the coffin, and Dwayne Wade is about to hammer it in. The Celtics are in some serious trouble. The eternal optimist might say that Boston has been simply waiting for the playoffs and will "flip the switch" when the games start to matter more. I myself said that at one time. But this team just isn't good enough anymore. Too old, bad chemistry, Rasheed Wallace. All good reasons to expect an early demise. Probably the biggest reason, though, is still the fact that Dwayne Wade is one of the three or four best basketball players in the universe.
2. San Antonio Spurs
It may seem hypocritical to accuse the Celtics of being too old and of dogging it until the playoffs, only to rank San Antonio high on this list. It's understandable. But the difference is that San Antonio has won four titles with Tim Duncan, one of the greatest basketball players of all time, as the centerpiece and Gregg Popovich as their coach, and the team has learned how to maintain in the regular season and turn it on for the playoffs. Just look at what San Antonio has done in the last month, ripping through playoff contenders left and right. They're primed up and ready to go. To Dallas' credit, the Mavs have been tremendous this year, especially since the Butler and Haywood trades. They have a lot of firepower, but the Spurs are tougher and smarter.
3. Oklahoma City Thunder
Some might say this is too high of a ranking, but OKC is as hot as it gets, Kevin Durant is beginning to realize his powers, and Kobe and the Lakers aren't playing as well as the were at the beginning of the year. This does have all the makings of a classic "up-and-comers" versus "experienced veterans" matchup, and more often than not, the veterans wind up on top. But Kevin Durant is a special player, and he has some great sidekicks in Russell Westbrook and Jeff Green. Don't sleep on the Thunder, especially if Westbrook can pick his game up a notch from where it has been lately and dominate the horrific Farmar/Fisher combo.
4. Utah Jazz
Utah has some injury concerns with AK47 and Boozer. But it sounds like at least Boozer, and likely both, will be back for the start of this series. That will be big, as the Jazz are much better than their record indicates. The injuries did it to them. Denver, meanwhile, hasn't done much of late to inspire confidence. Kenyon Martin had been out for an incredibly long stretch before coming back three games ago and his knee still isn't the same. Carmelo will need to have a very big series to hold off the Jazz.
5. Charlotte Bobcats
It's starting to get tough to come up with reasons that any of the following teams can win. Charlotte is a fun team, and they have definitely overachieved this year. But they won't be able to stop the Magic. They've been phenomenal since the All-Star break and they can hurt you in every aspect of the game. I expect them to prove that last year's trip to the conference finals wasn't a fluke. However, Charlotte won't just lay down. They should have some fight in them and it wouldn't be a complete surprise if they took this series to game six.
6. Portland Trail Blazers
I would have had Portland much higher, but when Brandon Roy went down he took the Blazer's chances with him. Phoenix has been hot lately, and their loss to a Roy-less Portland squad was an abberation. Steve Nash knows his window is closing and he'll have the eye of the tiger in this series. It's too bad, because this could have been a much more interesting series if everyone were healthy. Portland does deserve kudos for getting as far as they have this year, but their time is up.
7. Milwaukee Bucks
Another situation where losing an important player to injury effectively kills the team's chances of advancing. The Bucks could have slowed down the pace against Atlanta and tried to win some lower scoring games if they still had Bogut in the middle. But without him, the team will need to rely on Salmons and Jennings too much. Atlanta is going to be a tough out this year in the playoffs, and they could really build some momentum for the second round if they run Milwaukee out of the building like I expect.
8. Chicago Bulls
Hey Rose, Noah, and the rest of you. Look over at the other team's bench. See that guy? His name is LeBron James. He thinks it's cute that you guys think you can beat him. Look Chicago, sometimes you're the dog and sometimes you're the hydrant. See you next year.
